基于马氏过程的电子对抗装备伺服驱动器可用度分析

针对电子对抗装备天线伺服系统驱动器可用度评估问题,考虑其具有优先使用权冷贮备冗余设计的特点,运用马尔可夫过程分析的方法,研究修理工人数不同情况下伺服驱动器稳态可用度和瞬时可用度,建立相应的数学模型,最后进行实例验证,绘出不同维修策略下系统瞬时可用度随时间变化的曲线.     

VLMC控制流软件可靠性度量方法

针对现有软件可靠性模型普遍不适用于实际软件的问题,分析了软件内部模块间控制转移机理,通过分离入口模块,提取一阶控制转移概率矩阵;弱化内部模块与出口模块间差异,重构二阶以上转移概率矩阵,在改进Cheung模型的基础上建立一个更符合软件实际的可靠性度量模型。针对变阶依赖（ VLMC）控制转移导致的可靠性度量难问题,通过对导致复杂依赖的多入多出模块进行节点扩展,将VLMC控制流转化为Markov链,利用所建立的软件可靠性模型对VLMC控制流软件进行可靠性度量。研究利用演绎推理对所建立模型进行了正确性形式化证明。最后给出了方法的实例验证。     

Optimal material control in an assembly system with component commonality

Allocation of scarce common components to finished product orders is central to the performance of assembly systems. Analysis of these systems is complex, however, when the product master schedule is subject to uncertainty. In this paper, we analyze the cost—service performance of a component inventory system with correlated finished product demands, where component allocation is based on a fair shares method. Such issuing policies are used commonly in practice. We quantify the impact of component stocking policies on finished product delays due to component shortages and on product order completion rates. These results are used to determine optimal base stock levels for components, subject to constraints on finished product service (order completion rates). Our methodology can help managers of assembly systems to (1) understand the impact of their inventory management decisions on customer service, (2) achieve cost reductions by optimizing their inventory investments, and (3) evaluate supplier performance and negotiate contracts by quantifying the effect of delivery lead times on costs and customer service. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:409–429, 2001     

Computational analysis of MMAP[K]/PH[K]/1 queues with a mixed FCFS and LCFS service discipline

This paper studies a queueing system with a Markov arrival process with marked arrivals and PH‐distribution service times for each type of customer. Customers (regardless of their types) are served on a mixed first‐come‐first‐served (FCFS) and last‐come‐first‐served (LCFS) nonpreemptive basis. That is, when the queue length is N (a positive integer) or less, customers are served on an FCFS basis; otherwise, customers are served on an LCFS basis. The focus is on the stationary distribution of queue strings, busy periods, and waiting times of individual types of customers. A computational approach is developed for computing the stationary distribution of queue strings, the mean of busy period, and the means and variances of waiting times. The relationship between these performance measures and the threshold number N is analyzed in depth numerically. It is found that the variance of the virtual (actual) waiting time of an arbitrary customer can be reduced by increasing N. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 399–421, 2000     

Network reliability assessment in a random environment

In this paper we consider networks that consist of components operating under a randomly changing common environment. Our work is motivated by power system networks that are subject to fluctuating weather conditions over time that affect the performance of the network. We develop a general setup for any network that is subject to such environment and present results for network reliability assessment under two repair scenarios. We also present Bayesian analysis of network failure data and illustrate how reliability predictions can be obtained for the network. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 574–591, 2003     

Think again – supplying war: reappraising military logistics and its centrality to strategy and war

This article argues that logistics constrains strategic opportunity while itself being heavily circumscribed by strategic and operational planning. With the academic literature all but ignoring the centrality of logistics to strategy and war, this article argues for a reappraisal of the critical role of military logistics, and posits that the study and conduct of war and strategy are incomplete at best or false at worst when they ignore this crucial component of the art of war. The article conceptualises the logistics–strategy nexus in a novel way, explores its contemporary manifestation in an age of uncertainty, and applies it to a detailed case study of UK operations in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001.     

在非高斯马尔可夫噪声中的Robust检测

文中探讨了在仅已知噪声边缘分布族和相关系数的条件下非高斯马尔可夫噪声中确知信号的Robust检测问题。设噪声样本可表示为一阶AR过程:n_i=ρn_(i-1)+Y_i,(i=1,2,…,N),其中Y_i为独立同分布的随机序列。当p较小时,以检测器效验为性能指标并对ρ取一级和二级近似,分别得到了对应的有记忆和无记忆Robust检测器的结构。     

人才结构系统分析的目标规划方法

本文把马尔可夫过程和目标规划结合起来,提出人才结构系统分析的单项控制和多项控制,并在单项控制模型的基础上发展成了多项控制模型,加强了模型的可信度和通用性。     

最小、最大广义最优停止规则的特征

设(X_n,F_n)_1~∞是适应的报酬序列,(γ_n)是相应的snell 包,(A_n)是(γ_n)的Doob-Meyer 分解中零初值的可料增过程。本文继J.Klass 的研究证明了σ_1=inf{K≥1:X_k≥γ_k}是最小半最优的且是最大严格正则的广义规则,而K_0=sup{n≥0:A_n=0}<∞是最大正则的广义规则,从而得出了广义最优规则唯一性的另一表述。     

二维隐马氏模型的一种简化算法及其参数估计

针对现有的二维隐马氏模型算法给出了一种简化算法及参数估计方法。该算法与现有的算法相比非常简单。基于此方法给出了相应的识别方法和参数估计,并且该估计与极大似然估计是等同的。